Bank of England set to hold rates steady, slow QT

By David Milliken

LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates steady this week despite surging oil prices but is expected to slow the pace at which it offloads the government bonds it bought to boost the economy between 2009 and 2021.

Governor Andrew Bailey said last week the central bank had no "secret plan" to raise interest rates this year, unless the ongoing climb in oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East translated into more lasting domestic price pressures.

Economists polled by Reuters this month unanimously predicted the BoE would hold rates steady in September, and most judged the next move was more likely a cut next year than a hike.

But with oil prices topping $100 a barrel and looking in line with the most adverse of three scenarios the BoE outlined in July, some analysts are having doubts.

"Given the speed of the move and the hardening of central bank rhetoric, a surprise 25 basis-point rate hike cannot and should not be ruled out," Barclays interest rate strategist Moyeen Islam wrote in a note to clients.

Financial markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a quarter-point rate hike on September 17, according to LSEG data on Monday, up from less than 10% at the start of last week, and almost fully pricing in a November move.

But Bailey stressed he wanted to see clearer signs that higher energy prices might foster chunky pay rises this year or broad-based price increases – potentially sustaining above-target medium-term inflation – before backing a rate rise.

Few economists expect a change this month from July's 6-3 Monetary Policy Committee split to hold rates steady. Chief Economist Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann voted in July for an immediate quarter-point rise to 4.00%, with Mann switching from the hold camp the previous month — a hawkish drift that has widened at every meeting since March.

"In sharp contrast to the European Central Bank this month, we don't expect the BoE to turn materially more hawkish at its September meeting," ING economists James Smith and Michiel Tukker said.

BOE TO SLOW PACE OF BOND PORTFOLIO UNWIND

The MPC's other agenda item is an annual vote on the pace at which the central bank unwinds its £895 billion of bond purchases made between 2009 and 2021.

Since it stopped reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds in February 2022, the BoE's bond holdings have fallen by over £400 billion, a third of it through active sales – unlike the Fed or ECB.

Last September, the BoE voted to slow quantitative tightening to £70 billion a year from £100 billion, and a July investor survey pointed to a further drop to £50 billion for October 2026 to September 2027.

This fall almost entirely reflects fewer gilts maturing, while the amount sold under this scenario — £19.5 billion — is only slightly below the £21 billion sold over the past 12 months.

Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden told lawmakers last week that central bank research pointed to a cumulative 25 basis-point upward impact on gilt yields from QT, showing the programme was working as designed.

However, estimates vary. Morgan Stanley strategist Fabio Bassanin said the 25 basis-point estimate probably held for 10-year gilts, but for 30-year gilts the impact looked nearer 70 basis points — roughly the gap between 30-year British and U.S. borrowing costs.

Prices of 20- and 30-year gilts fell to their lowest since 1998 last week and further sales by the BoE would lock in those losses. Last year the bank skewed sales away from long-dated gilts, and Deutsche Bank said it expects the BoE to halt them entirely.

Analysts also want hints on the QT programme's longer-term future. Bailey wants to remove the interest rate risk gilt holdings create, but some BoE watchers argue for holding some gilts permanently.

"We think the balance sheet debate should shift from how quickly the balance sheet shrinks to what its long-run structure should be," Deutsche Bank Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja said.

(Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Hugh Lawson)