Saipem cuts 2026 forecast, signals Middle East hit for energy contractors

By Francesca Landini and Stephanie Kelly

MILAN, July 28 (Reuters) - Saipem cut its 2026 core earnings forecast on Tuesday, sending shares in the Italian oilfield services group down more than 8% as disruption linked to the Gulf conflict drove up costs and created logistical challenges.

The Milan-based group now expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of €1.75 billion ($1.99 billion) this year, down from a previous forecast of €1.9 billion.

Oilfield service companies had been seen as potential beneficiaries of the conflict between the United States and Iran, with damage to energy infrastructure expected to spur demand for repairs and reconstruction work.

Instead, Saipem and U.S. rival Baker Hughes warned this week that the conflict was weighing on operations, as energy companies delayed some projects and service providers faced higher costs and disruption.

CAUTIOUS CUSTOMERS AND EXTRA COSTS

Baker Hughes said on Monday it expected global spending by oil and gas producers to decline modestly this year, citing weaker activity in Europe and the Middle East as customers take a more cautious approach.

The U.S. group also said disruptions linked to the conflict would reduce revenue at its industrial and energy technology division by 1% to 2% and increase logistics and inflation-related pressures in the third quarter.

Saipem, whose customers include Saudi Aramco, QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi's ADNOC, said it incurred around €70 million in additional costs in the first half to strengthen security for personnel and overcome logistical difficulties.

It expects similar extra costs in the second half, but said it was in talks with customers and was confident it could recover part of those costs next year.

Intermittent closures of the Strait of Hormuz have complicated deliveries of equipment to clients in the Gulf, Saipem CEO Alessandro Puliti told analysts.

Saipem plans around 10 crossings of the strategic waterway during the rest of the year and is coordinating closely with customers, he said.

Saipem shares were down 8% at 1130 GMT on the Milan bourse. Baker Hughes shares have gained nearly 6% this week after the company beat quarterly profit estimates.

Saipem confirmed its full-year operating cash flow forecast of €1 billion and said it was already carrying out repair work in the Gulf, although it declined to provide details because of contractual confidentiality requirements.

Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA fell nearly 3% to €402 million, missing analysts' consensus forecast of €464 million, according to LSEG.

($1 = 0.8792 euros)

(Reporting by Francesca Landini and Stephanie Kelly. Editing by Gavin Jones and Mark Potter)