Gold miners set for earnings growth, but higher costs could temper gains

By Sumit Saha and Ashitha Shivaprasad

July 22 (Reuters) - Gold miners are expected to report sharply higher second-quarter profits, buoyed by stronger bullion prices, though the Iran war's impact on energy costs likely weighed on earnings growth.

The world's two biggest listed producers, Newmont and Barrick Mining, are expected to post combined profit of nearly $3.5 billion, up from $2.4 billion a year earlier, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Here are more details:

• Average gold prices rose about 37% from a year earlier to $4,506.41 an ounce during the quarter, supporting earnings even as prices retreated more than 14% from the record high of $5,594.82 an ounce hit in January.

• Despite the cost pressures from higher energy prices, major producers, including Newmont and Barrick, are expected to generate substantial free cash flow and maintain strong balance sheets.

• Strong cash generation is expected to keep buybacks in focus, with Scotiabank forecasting significant share repurchases by Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold.

• Echoing this view, RBC analyst Josh Wolfson said, "Despite the uncertainties, gold producers remain in a position of strength, with most carrying net cash positions, returning capital to shareholders and guiding to stronger operating performance in the second half of 2026."

• Wolfson said second-quarter earnings could still be mixed due to tougher sequential comparisons.

• Investors will also be watching Newmont's operational execution as the world's largest gold producer has been reshaping its leadership team under CEO Natascha Viljoen, who appointed Brian Tabolt as chief financial officer in June as part of a broader management overhaul.

• BMO Capital Markets said the overhaul reduces uncertainty and positions the company for improved operational performance and project execution.

• Newmont reports results on Thursday, followed by Agnico and Kinross Gold on July 29 and Barrick on August 10.

(Reporting by Sumit Saha and Ashitha Shivaparasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)