Oil rallies, sending dollar higher on expectations of higher US rates

By Sinéad Carew and Danilo Masoni

NEW YORK/MILAN, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Monday as attacks on Saudi Arabia overshadowed hopes for supply improvements, and expectations for higher US interest rates to fight inflation drove the dollar higher on a narrowly mixed day for global stocks.

The action came after US President Donald Trump hailed fresh Russian diesel exports and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.

The dollar's rise in recent months has been driven in large part by expectations that high prices for energy and other goods will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a time when US growth is stronger than in other rich economies. This could expand the rate differentials that drive currency movements.

While the US bond market was closed for the Columbus Day holiday, investors were cautiously waiting for September inflation data and the third-quarter earnings season, which begins on Tuesday with earnings from major US banks.

"There's a lot to be wary of," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management. "You're walking down a train line and you don't know, because it's dark, if a train is coming and so, you know, you're just being real careful right today." 

Besides the wait for earnings and economic data, Pavlik noted that stocks were also "being kept in check because of higher oil" and a lack of direction from the bond market, which tends to influence stocks and  other assets.

US Treasury yields hit 24-year highs this month as high energy costs fueled concerns that inflation could stay elevated, keeping policymakers hawkish and pressuring equity valuations. 

On Wall Street on Monday afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3%, the S&P 500 was off 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5%. 

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.15%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.61% as bank stocks gained in Europe. Also, euro zone benchmark Bund yields edged lower and French and Italian debt risk premiums fell slightly. [GVD/EUR]

On the earnings front, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are due to report on Tuesday and Bank of America on Wednesday. 

S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb more than 30% in the third quarter, according to LSEG IBES, though the bulk of that is expected to come from the tech sector. STOXX earnings are expected to increase 21%, or 9.7% excluding the energy sector.     

On the data side, rising energy costs are expected to lift the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by a hefty 0.6% to an annual 3.7%, though the core is seen cooler at 0.2% and 2.5% annually.

In currencies, the US dollar held near an 18-month high, supported by safe-haven demand as an escalating Middle East conflict kept investors cautious ahead of the inflation data.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.4% to 102.59, with the euro down 0.23% at $1.1175.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.22% to 158.66.

Markets imply only a 19% chance of a rate increase from the Federal Reserve this month, rising to a roughly 71% chance for a hike of 25 basis points in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Investors are also betting on hikes in the EU, Japan and Britain before the end of the year.

In energy markets, US crude rose 1.9% to $93.55 a barrel and Brent rose 1.7% to $106.52.

In precious metals, spot gold fell 0.62% to $4,167.98 an ounce. 

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew, Danilo Masoni and Wayne Cole; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Mark Potter, Aurora Ellis, Colin Barr and David Gregorio)