Novo hikes outlook again as it speeds up Wegovy pill rollout

By Patrick Wingrove and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen

LONDON/COPENHAGEN, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Obesity drugmaker Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 outlook for the third time this year on Wednesday as quarterly sales of its Wegovy pill beat forecasts, bolstering the Danish firm's efforts to recover ground lost to US rival Eli Lilly.

Novo, which is clawing back into the obesity drug race after sliding sales and shares in recent years, raised its full-year adjusted sales and operating profit forecast to between 2% growth and a 2% decline at constant exchange rates, up from flat to a 6% fall.

It said the improvement in its third-quarter performance was driven by higher volumes, in particular in obesity drugs, in both the US and international markets. The outlook assumes sales growth internationally and a decline in the US.

Novo said high manufacturing output and faster approvals from health authorities had allowed it to speed up the rollout of its Wegovy pill. It now plans to launch the pill in more than 20 countries by mid-2027, compared with the end-2027 target given at its capital markets day in September.

CEO Mike Doustdar said in an interview that Novo had held its ground since Lilly launched a rival pill. "We've been able to hold the baton," he said, adding that he was convinced Lilly "is trying really hard to reverse this thing, and we need to watch them."

Novo shares rose as much as 6.6% in early trade and were up 4.2% at 1318 GMT, headed for their biggest daily gain since June 19.

Novo rode a wave of demand after launching Wegovy in 2021, becoming Europe's most valuable listed company in 2023 with its market value later cresting above $600 billion. Its shares have since slumped more than 70% from their peak, while Lilly's have surged.

Lilly also raised its outlook last week after beating profit estimates, driven by booming demand for its injectable weight-loss drugs.

Novo's results show the new CEO has stabilised the company, said Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at mutual fund and Novo shareholder Union Investment. But "the competitive environment in the obesity market is likely to become increasingly challenging," he told Reuters.

The Wegovy pill has been the star performer for Novo. Launched in the US in January, it brought in 5.39 billion Danish crowns ($810 million) in the third quarter, up 53% from the second quarter and above the 4.62 billion consensus estimate.

"There’s no denying that Eli Lilly clearly has the lead in the injectable obesity drug market, but Novo has the upper hand when it comes to the pill," said Lars Hytting, a Copenhagen-based investor at Novo shareholder ArthaScope.

Novo's US head said a new government programme letting US seniors get obesity drugs for just $50 a month, which began in July, was largely behind the roughly 20% quarter-on-quarter rise in Wegovy pill volumes. Without it, the US obesity drug category was roughly flat from May to October, he said, citing seasonality.

Novo also said Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen would leave at the end of December. The company named Galderma finance chief Luigi La Corte as his successor.

PILL SEEN AS GROWTH DRIVER

The pill makes up only about 6% of expected sales, but analysts see it as the company's main route back to growth after a two-year slump amid profit warnings and a leadership change.

US sales of injectable Wegovy fell 13% at constant exchange rates, although combined US Wegovy sales rose 21%.

Novo estimates the pill has about 80% of new-to-brand prescriptions in the US across reimbursed, cash-pay and telehealth channels.

Of the remaining 20%, Doustdar told Reuters, about half come from Novo's own injectable Wegovy and the rest come from rivals' drugs and other injectable products, including makeshift versions of Wegovy sold by US pharmacies.

Outside the US, Novo said its pill holds about 90% of the UK oral obesity market and 80% in the UAE, and sold about 100,000 packs in Germany in six weeks, mostly to people new to the GLP-1 class of drugs.

The wider Wegovy franchise holds more than 50% of new patient starts among branded obesity drugs, it said. The pill is now sold in eight markets.

Novo is trying to catch up with Lilly, whose rival Foundayo pill is winning a growing share of new prescriptions. Doustdar said Novo's data matched Lilly's claim from last week that about 7 in 10 seniors in the US government's Medicare programme choose Lilly's drugs. Doustdar said, however, that 8 out of 10 seniors in the programme who chose a pill picked Novo.

Third-quarter adjusted operating profit rose 27% to 31.72 billion Danish crowns at constant exchange rates from a year earlier, above the 28.39 billion projected by analysts. Adjusted sales were 79.20 billion crowns against 73.22 billion expected.

($1 = 6.6544 Danish crowns)

(Reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Patrick Wingrove. Editing by Jan Harvey, Tomasz Janowski and Mark Potter)