Euro bounces as falling French bond yields temper debt concerns

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The euro rebounded on Tuesday and was on pace for its strongest move higher in a month after falling to its lowest in 17 months in the prior day, as a pullback in French government bond yields cooled fears about strain in euro zone debt markets.

The euro zone's currency climbed 0.28%, on track for its biggest daily gain since September 3, at $1.1252. the currency had slid to its lowest since May 2025 on Monday at $1.116, following a drop of more than 1% in the prior week, its fourth straight weekly decline. 

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.26% to 101.89 and was on pace for its biggest daily drop since September 25. 

Bond markets around the world have seen yields rise due to expectations of sharp central bank rate hikes as energy prices have jumped due to the US-Israeli war with Iran and fanned inflation, as well as concerns about government finances.

French debt has seen pressure mount as politicians struggle to curb the budget deficit ahead of a divisive election in 2027. The calling of a snap election in Spain added to the recent pressure on the euro.

ENERGY PRICES EASE BOND PRESSURE

A drop in energy prices helped French bonds rally on Tuesday, with key 10-year yield down 8 basis points on Tuesday at 4.7824%.

Crude prices fell as rising Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concern as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces staged a lightning advance on Monday to retake the coast around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait up to the city of Mocha, the government said. 

'Saudi-backed Yemen forces have recaptured some strategic territory from the Houthis, this has seen oil prices drop sharply," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets in New York. 

"In turn, this has helped drag yields down, including in France, and in Italy, where the spreads had really widened lately and so this is giving the euro a bit of a bounce."

Far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, who leads the polls, on Tuesday increased her plans to reduce spending to €140 billion ($158 billion) from €125 billion in savings originally planned if she wins power in 2027.  

The fall in the dollar offered helped buoy other currencies, with sterling up 0.39% to $1.327 after climbing to a one-week high of $1.3283.

JAPAN SIGNALS RATE RISE READINESS

The yen was an exception however, with the dollar up 0.05% to 157.98 against the Japanese currency. 

The Bank of Japan may signal this month that underlying inflation has roughly hit its 2% target, three people familiar with its thinking said, highlighting its readiness to raise interest rates again in the coming months.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said it was becoming more important to anchor underlying inflation around the central bank's 2% target, signaling a preparedness to keep raising interest rates to blunt the risk of too-high inflation.

The US dollar's recent strength has come even as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the central bank's policy meeting later this month have retreated n the wake of weaker-than-expected US jobs data and comments from some Fed officials, However, markets are still anticipating more rate hikes later in the year and next year.  

The chance of a hike of at least 25 basis points in October stands at about 22%, from about 51% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch, but markets are pricing in an 86% chance for a hike at the December meeting. 

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; additional reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Xevi Fontdegloria and Nick Zieminski)