Dollar slips as in-line CPI tempers rate-hike bets

By Karen Brettell

Aug 12 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened on Wednesday after U.S. consumer price inflation matched economists' expectations in July, easing concerns that a hot reading could reinvigorate expectations for a near-term interest rate hike.

In the 12 months through July, the CPI advanced 3.4% after rising 3.5% in June. Core CPI increased 2.5% in the 12 months through July after climbing 2.6% in June.

Traders have pared bets on a rate increase at the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting since Friday's jobs report showed employers unexpectedly shed jobs in July. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in 40% odds of a September rate hike, down from 44% before Wednesday's data and from 55% a week ago.

“I thought that after the soft jobs data on Friday, that the dollar would stay soft because of the expectations of the soft CPI. The dollar really didn't go anywhere. If anything, it was a bit firmer than I expected,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

“But we are getting a little bit of a weaker dollar after the CPI. It looks like the market may have downgraded very slightly the odds of a September rate hike,” Chandler said.

Oil prices rose in volatile trade on Wednesday after attacks on two ships reinforced worries about disruptions to Middle East supplies and as talks to end the Iran war hit an impasse.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.12% to 99.69, with the euro up 0.12% at $1.1554.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.3% against the greenback to 158.84 per dollar. It has pared gains that were made during the joint intervention in late July by U.S. and Japanese authorities to strengthen the Japanese currency.

"The release of the latest CFTC report at the end of last week did show that that intervention triggered a sharp squeeze of speculative short yen positions," said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG.

"If there is no change in fundamentals, speculators will be encouraged to rebuild short yen positions at a time when stable financial market conditions remain supportive for carry trades," he added.

The New Zealand dollar was little changed on the day at $0.5879 after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said on Wednesday he had won a confidence vote of ruling party lawmakers, following speculation about his leadership months from a general election. 

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo)