Dollar declines ahead of US midterms as oil falls; bitcoin steadies after crypto theft

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar eased on Monday as oil prices tumbled and equities climbed ahead of a week full of catalysts, including the US midterm elections, a host of data on the US labor market and multiple central bank rate decisions.

Crude prices tumbled about 6% as continuing talks between Iranian and Qatari officials on ending the US-Israeli war with Iran lifted hopes for reduced disruptions to supply from the Middle East.

The easing of oil prices helped buoy stocks after the Nasdaq suffered in October its biggest monthly percentage decline since March 2025, largely due to growing concerns about massive spending by companies on the emerging AI technology.

"What we have broadly is just a resilient market. Oil prices, the December WTI tested 105 on Friday, and we're below 100 now," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets in New York.

"When we went into the weekend, everything looked bad. Stocks had sold off, oil was at new contract highs in the December WTI. And we come back from the weekend, and this is a collective sigh of relief."

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.38% to 101.59 and was on track for its biggest daily percentage decline since October 15.

The euro was up 0.48% at $1.1212, even after late Friday's revision by Fitch of France's outlook to "negative" from "stable."

MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES IN OCTOBER

On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 55.5 last month from 54.5 in September, while input prices remained elevated.

Markets will also deal with a flurry of data on the labor market this week, culminating on Friday with the government's key October payrolls report.

The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI showed manufacturing activity growth in the region held up well in October, albeit easing as new order growth slowed and rising costs from energy and supply-chain disruptions squeezed margins.

Multiple central banks are scheduled to issue policy statements this week, including those in Britain, Australia, Norway and Sweden.

CRYPTO MARKETS STEADY AFTER BINANCE HACK

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.06% to $77,765.90 and ether rose 1.06% to $2,286.31, steadying slightly following last week's record $6.3 billion heist at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange.

Binance's customers have withdrawn almost $5 billion from the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange since it reopened after the hack, the company said.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress from US President ​Donald Trump's Republican Party, with the economy and high prices key issues among voters. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but wresting control of the Senate may prove more difficult.

Sterling strengthened 0.22% to $1.3424. PMI data showed British manufacturers started the final quarter of 2026 with the strongest output growth in more than two years, although fast-rising costs may worry the Bank of England, which looks set to raise interest rates this week.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.08% to 157.66. Japan's real interest rates have risen recently, especially in the long- and super-long zones, the central bank said in a full version of its quarterly outlook report.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Sophie Kiderlin in London; Editing by Jamie Freed, Kirsten Donovan and Hugh Lawson)