Analysts dial down oil forecasts as Hormuz reopening eases supply concerns

By Anushree Mukherjee

June 30 (Reuters) - Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, after five straight monthly increases, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

The monthly survey of 31 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $84.50 per barrel in 2026, versus $90.44 projected last month. U.S. crude was seen averaging $79.49 per barrel, down from May's view of $84.63.

The latest revisions mark a more than 6% decline from May estimates. Forecasts had jumped following the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February that disrupted oil supplies and drove oil prices to multi-year highs.

Oil benchmarks have since fallen significantly from peaks above $126 per barrel for Brent and nearly $120 for WTI as easing geopolitical tensions and the restoration of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz alleviated fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

"The bulk of the geopolitical risk premium has already unwound," said UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller, adding that recovering Middle East flows and weaker demand are likely to cap further upside.

On average, analysts see Brent easing from about $84 in the third quarter of 2026 to around $79 in quarter four, before falling to the mid-$70s by mid-2027, according to the poll.

However, some market participants cautioned that lingering geopolitical risks could still provide support to prices.

SUPPLY RETURNS AS RISKS EASE

"If traffic through the Strait of Hormuz comes back to normal, we will go back to supply surplus on the oil markets. Therefore prices will continue to go down in the second half of 2026," LBBW's head of commodity research Frank Schallenberger said.

During the conflict the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had choked off nearly a fifth of global oil supply, forcing a sharp drawdown in inventories and pushing markets into a deficit in 2026.

"Our 2026 balance estimates show a market in about a 2 million barrel per day deficit... and a return to a small surplus of about 1 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2026, assuming Gulf production is restored to near normal," said Kim Fustier, head of European oil & gas research at HSBC.

Several respondents expect OPEC+ to continue raising output, although at a measured pace, as it seeks to regain market share while preventing a sharp fall in prices.

In its first look at 2027, the International Energy Agency said the oil market will enter a significant supply overhang, with global supply set to surge by 8 million barrels per day and demand rising by just 2 million.

DEMAND SOFTENS, SUPPORT EYED AHEAD

According to the poll, oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to decline by roughly 1.0 million to 2.0 million barrels per day. Analysts said demand has softened due to weaker consumption in China, the world's largest oil importer. 

OPEC kept its 2026 oil demand growth forecast steady at about 1.4 million barrels per day from February through April, before cutting it to around 1.2 million bpd in May and to below 1 million bpd in June.

However, some poll participants see demand improving later on affordability, with Goldman Sachs citing a structural trend of global strategic stockpiling of over 1 million bpd in 2027.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey)