Dollar bulls gain ground even as most FX strategists still expect weakness: Reuters poll

By Sarupya Ganguly

BENGALURU, July 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar’s recent rebound will fade in coming months as cooling oil prices temper inflation fears and Federal Reserve rate hike bets, a majority of FX strategists said in a Reuters poll, though a sizable minority say the strength is here to stay.

A brief respite from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran helped lift the greenback about 4% from May's low and sent crude oil prices back to pre-war levels while long-dollar bets climbed to their highest since January 2025, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed.

The greenback has also drawn support from U.S. inflation that is well above target, a resilient economy, elevated Treasury yields and news in June nearly half of Fed policymakers expect rates to rise this year. Interest rate futures are pricing in almost two hikes by year-end.

But FX analysts in the June 26-July 1 survey defied that pricing, sticking to their long-held view the dollar will weaken.

Poll medians showed the euro rising 2% to $1.16 by end-September, $1.17 at year-end and $1.18 a year from now.

"There's the possibility the Fed could end up cutting interest rates in 2027, so we're more dovish than the market on the Fed. Those hikes getting priced out would weigh against the dollar," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, predicting a choppy range in coming weeks.

DOLLAR DIVIDE

The distribution of forecasts in the poll showed the weaker dollar view is facing resistance from a growing camp predicting ⁠smaller declines - or even gains in the near-term.

A strong 71% majority, 29 of 41 respondents - who have broadly called it right in surveys conducted this year - said current net-longs would hold or increase by the end of July. The rest predicted a decline. No one expected a reversal to net-short positioning.

About one-third of strategists in the survey, 23 of 70, also forecast euro-dollar to remain flat or even edge down in three months. That is more than around 20% in June's survey.

"We recently revised up our forecast to see additional dollar appreciation at least until the third quarter," said Bank of America FX strategist Alex Cohen, who expects three Fed rate hikes this year.

"The way (Fed Chair Kevin) Warsh articulated things on the inflation front was a clear bullish-dollar signal in our view...and the data supports that. We're looking for a much more hawkish outcome from the Fed relative to many other G10 central banks."

The European Central Bank, after hiking in June, is expected to raise rates only once more this year.

Citibank's head of G10 FX strategy, Dan Tobon, struck a similar tone, saying there was a high chance the euro could fall to as low as $1.11 in coming months - more than 4% below the poll median.

"It's not our base case we're going to have this big inflationary wave...but if we get some upside surprises in the data, we're likely to see even more hawkish repricing to a higher dollar. Whereas if the data misses, it's not necessarily going to quickly unwind all the hawkishness priced in," Tobon said.

YEN PRESSURE TO EASE

A stronger dollar poses an outsized threat to the Japanese yen, which fell to a 40-year low earlier this week and has since weakened further to near 163/$, raising the chance of official intervention.

But strategists held on to their call for a gradual recovery over the coming year, betting elevated inflation will push the Bank of Japan to follow its recent rate hike with further tightening.

Poll medians showed the yen strengthening to around 159/$ by end-September, 156/$ by year-end and 154/$ in a year.

(Other stories from the July Reuters foreign exchange poll)

(Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly; Additional reporting by Jaiganesh Mahesh and Renusri K; Polling by Mumal Rathore and Indradip Ghosh; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Chizu Nomiyama )