PepsiCo slashes forecast, deepens cost cuts as N.America recovery drags

By Anuja Bharat Mistry and Alexander Marrow

Oct 8 (Reuters) - PepsiCo warned on Thursday that growth and margin recovery in its key North American market was taking longer than planned and said it would pursue additional cost cuts to offset sluggish demand for its snacks and beverages.

Faced with high input costs, inflation hit to demand and the growing threat of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, the company is pursuing record productivity savings in its turnaround efforts launched after activist investor Elliott Investment Management took a roughly $4 billion stake a year ago.

PepsiCo's third-quarter revenue exceeded market expectations and the company adjusted its 2026 organic revenue forecast to about 3% from a prior view of 2% to 4%, but flagged that improving growth and core operating margin in North America were taking longer than planned.

"We expect North America's core operating margin performance to remain under pressure in the fourth quarter," said CFO Steve Schmitt.

PepsiCo's core operating margin dropped 35 basis points in the third quarter from a year ago and was down 25 basis points year to date at 16.5% of revenue. In December, after discussions with Elliott, PepsiCo said it was targeting a 100-basis-point uptick over three years.

The company also cut its fiscal 2026 forecast for core earnings per share after adjusting for currency fluctuations to an increase of 1% to 2%, compared with previous expectations for the low end of the 4% to 6% range.

The challenge is industry-wide. Packaged food makers such as General Mills, McCormick and Conagra Brands are spending more on promotions and affordability initiatives to revive demand while contending with higher input costs.

PepsiCo, whose shares had touched a more than six-year low this week, rose about 2% in morning trading.

The company is expanding its range of high-protein products to tackle GLP-1 threat and CEO Ramon Laguarta said additional cost cuts would be implemented in the coming months to accelerate organic revenue growth and combat rising input cost inflation.

PepsiCo's international business continues to perform well, but North America remains challenged, with third-quarter food volumes flat and beverage volumes down 2% from a year ago. Executives said they expect consumers in the region to remain under pressure over the next 12 to 18 months.

"The beverage business continues to disappoint, and we expect PepsiCo will continue to be a source of share to both Coca-Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper." said Nik Modi, analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "PepsiCo will have to fully refranchise its beverage business or it will continue to lose share."

PepsiCo cut prices by up to 15% on products such as Lay's and Doritos in February, but said last month said it would raise some chip prices to offset higher input costs. Executives expect next year's pricing to be below 2025 levels.

CEO FACES MOUNTING PRESSURE

CEO Laguarta has bought some goodwill with the international numbers, but the pressure he is under is high and rising, said David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at PepsiCo investor Aptus Capital Advisors, noting that patience from the board and activists is finite.

"Next couple of quarters need to show real North American inflection, or the pressure moves from 'deliver the turnaround' to 'explain why you're still the right person to lead it'," he said.

(Reporting by Alexander Marrow in London and Anuja Bharat Mistry in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)