Novo Nordisk hikes 2026 outlook again as Wegovy pill beats forecasts

By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Patrick Wingrove

COPENHAGEN, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Obesity drugmaker Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 outlook for the third time this year on Wednesday as quarterly sales of its Wegovy pill beat forecasts, bolstering the Danish firm's efforts to recover ground lost to US rival Eli Lilly.

Novo, which is clawing back into the obesity drug race after sliding sales and shares in recent years, raised its full-year adjusted sales and operating profit forecast to between 2% growth and a 2% decline at constant exchange rates, up from flat to a 6% fall.

It said the improvement in its third-quarter performance was driven by higher volumes, in particular in obesity drugs, in both the US and international markets. The outlook assumes sales growth internationally and a decline in the United States.

Novo shares rose as much as 6.6% in early trade and were up 1.9% at 1023 GMT.

Novo rode a wave of demand after launching Wegovy in 2021, becoming Europe's most valuable listed company in 2023 with its market value later cresting above $600 billion. Its shares have since slumped more than 70% from their peak, while Lilly's have surged.

Lilly also raised its outlook last week after beating profit estimates, driven by booming demand for its injectable weight-loss drugs.

The Wegovy pill has been the star performer for Novo. Launched in the US in January, it brought in 5.39 billion Danish crowns ($810 million) in the third quarter, up 53% from the second quarter and above the 4.62 billion consensus. As Lilly's obesity drug Zepbound outsells injectable Wegovy, Novo has announced a shift to pills, which CEO Mike Doustdar has said could account for up to half of the obesity market by 2030.

"There’s no denying that Eli Lilly clearly has the lead in the injectable obesity drug market, but Novo has the upper hand when it comes to the pill," said Lars Hytting, a Copenhagen-based investor at Novo shareholder ArthaScope. "Novo needs to capitalize on the fact that they are currently the market leader in oral medication. That is the narrative they need to stick to."

The US accounted for 4.18 billion crowns and international markets brought in 1.22 billion crowns in pill sales. US prescriptions reached about 3.6 million in the quarter, and more than 8 million since launch.

Doustdar acknowledged, however, on a call with reporters that the pill's prescription curve has flattened in recent weeks, blaming seasonality. He said that Novo hoped for a pick-up around Christmas and the New Year.

Novo also said Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen, who has held the job since 2018, would leave at the end of December. The company named Galderma finance chief Luigi La Corte as his successor.

PILL SEEN AS GROWTH DRIVER

Novo's pill makes up only about 6% of expected sales, but analysts see it as the company's main route back to growth after a two-year slump amid profit warnings and a leadership change.

US sales of injectable Wegovy fell 13% at constant exchange rates, although combined US Wegovy sales rose 21%.

Novo estimates the pill has about 80% of new-to-brand prescriptions in the US across reimbursed, cash-pay and telehealth channels.

The wider Wegovy franchise holds more than 50% of new patient starts among branded obesity drugs, it says. The pill is now sold in eight markets.

Novo is trying to catch up with Lilly, whose rival Foundayo pill is winning a growing share of new prescriptions.

Third-quarter adjusted operating profit rose 27% to 31.72 billion Danish crowns at constant exchange rates from a year earlier, above the 28.39 billion projected by analysts. Adjusted sales were 79.20 billion crowns against 73.22 billion expected.

"Growth was led by our obesity portfolio, with continued uptake of Wegovy pill in the US and encouraging early launches internationally," Doustdar said in a statement.

He declined to give 2027 guidance before February, but pointed to challenges, such as loss of semaglutide exclusivity in some international markets, continued pressure in China and a less favourable gross-to-net effect than in 2026.

Novo will also cut US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic to $675 a month from January 1, reductions of about 50% and 35%, respectively, which it said will hit 2027 cash flow.

($1 = 6.6544 Danish crowns)

(Reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Patrick Wingrove; Editing by Terje Solsvik, Louise Heavens, Jan Harvey and Tomasz Janowski)