Stocks slip in Asia, oil up on peace doubts

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, June 22 (Reuters) - Most share markets slipped in Asia on Monday as doubts about the Middle East peace process sent oil prices and bond yields up again, leading investors to price in more risk of higher U.S. interest rates.

Sterling eased amid reports Prime Minister Keir Starmer was considering his political future, after rival Andy Burnham's decisive election victory to parliament prompted more ministers in the governing Labour Party to call for him to go.

U.S. President Donald Trump posted that Starmer was set to resign, while also threatening fresh attacks on Iran even as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials for the first talks under an interim peace deal.

The talks were overshadowed by Tehran's announcement it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz, with tracking sites showing fewer vessels transiting after 32 ships made the passage on Friday and 26 on Saturday.

Iran's threats were enough to push Brent crude futures up 1.1% to $81.43 a barrel, still far away from its May peak of $126.41. U.S. crude firmed 2.7% to $78.70 a barrel, but remained above the $67 level it traded at before the war began. [O/R]

S&P 500 futures eased 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures lost 0.7%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.5%, while DAX futures dropped 0.3% and FTSE futures dipped 0.1%.

Japan's Nikkei edged up 0.7%, having climbed almost 8% last week to all-time highs. South Korea's red-hot market fell 0.9%, after surging more than 11% last week on demand for semiconductor stocks.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.4%.

MARKET NARROWS ODDS ON FED HIKE

Treasuries remained under pressure following a hawkish turn by the Federal Reserve last week that led markets to price in a 75% chance of a rate hike as early as September.

Futures imply 38 basis points of tightening by year-end, while yields on 2-year notes rose 4 basis points to the highest since early 2025 at 4.2276%.

"Our baseline call is for patience and a first hike in the second half of 2027, but believe the margin for error and the tolerance for further inflation is limited, with genuine risks of earlier hikes," said Fabio Bassi, head of cross-asset strategy at JPMorgan.

"We remain constructive on risk assets as improving labour markets will keep rates higher for longer, supporting a narrow leadership in Quality Growth, Large Cap and Tech," he added. "We see upside risks for the S&P target tilted towards 8,000."

The Fed's favoured gauge of core inflation is due on Thursday and is forecast to rise a tick to 3.4% in May, underlining the risk of tighter policy.

Central bank speakers include Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams.

The Fed's hawkish outlook kept the dollar supported at 161.44 yen, with only the threat of Japanese intervention preventing a test of resistance at 161.96, a top from mid-2024.

The euro eased to $1.1462, after hitting a three-month low on Friday at $1.1418. Political uncertainty nudged sterling down 0.2% to $1.3210.

"Amid the uncertainty around a potential challenge against the UK PM and what that means for the fiscal outlook, the likelihood is that gilts will remain under selling pressure to start the week," said Skye Masters, head of market research at NAB.

In commodity markets, higher bond yields weighed on non-interest-paying gold which slipped 0.1% to $4,154 an ounce. [GOL/]  

(Reporting by Wayne Cole;Editing by Shri Navaratnam)