Analysis-Airbus leans towards Saab as Franco-German fighter unravels

By Tim Hepher, Sabine Siebold and Maria Rugamer

PARIS/BERLIN, June 10 (Reuters) - Airbus is increasingly looking to Sweden's Saab as a preferred future partner as the collapse of a Franco-German fighter programme reshapes European defence alliances, three people familiar with the matter said.

Teaming up on warfare with the maker of Gripen combat jets is not the only option for Airbus, which represents Germany and Spain in the fighter market. There have also been high-level contacts on a separate project involving Britain, Italy and Japan.

But Airbus and Saab have been in broad exploratory talks for at least six months, buoyed by improving defence relations between Germany and Sweden, the people said.

Saab said any cooperation would be a political decision. "That said, we have an open-door policy and are open to collaboration with many defence industry players," a spokesperson said.

Airbus had no immediate comment.

Until now, talks have been largely conceptual to avoid pre-empting the breakdown of the FCAS fighter project, sources said.

But this week's divorce between Airbus and Dassault Aviation - expected to be made official at the Berlin Airshow - could allow Airbus to pursue a Nordic partnership more openly.

Speaking to Reuters in Berlin, Airbus Defence & Space CEO Michael Schoellhorn confirmed Saab was among potential partners but said it was too early to rule out other options.

"There are potential partners, e.g. Saab. It will also be up to the (German) air force ... to restate what they actually need."

On Tuesday, Leonardo opened the door to Airbus and its defence paymaster Germany joining the separate GCAP project between Britain, Italy and Japan.

Berlin would be a "particularly valid partner," CEO Lorenzo Mariani told Reuters.

Analysts say the collapse of FCAS after nine years deals a blow to European defence cooperation. Decisions over what comes next will shape European air power for decades.

"It demonstrates how difficult it is to align military, political and industrial priorities," said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at IISS.

POTENTIAL HURDLES

Sweden remained independent during the last round of fighter development, building the Gripen while France produced the Rafale and Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy co-developed the Eurofighter.

For the next generation it has yet to show its hand, having initially partnered with Britain and now conducting research on a Gripen successor, with political decisions due in 2030.

People familiar with the matter said Sweden has both the will and technology to team up with Airbus if requested.

The two sides have been inching closer for months.

Visiting Germany last September, Swedish Defence Minister Pal Jonson said industrial co-operation was "blossoming".

In December, Reuters reported Saab and Airbus had begun discussing co-operation on unmanned technology.

Those talks focused on supporting existing crewed fighters such as the Eurofighter and Gripen E, but sources said they could become a springboard for deeper cooperation.

Still, hurdles remain whichever path Berlin takes.

Just as France and Germany have historically differed over the role of their fighters - an issue that led France to leave the Eurofighter in the 1980s to build the Rafale - it remains unclear how far German and Swedish requirements align.

Insiders say GCAP is constrained by a tight 2035 deadline agreed with Japan, making it difficult to offer Germany more than a junior role.

Questions also remain whether any country can go it alone.

Dassault, the only European firm to have developed a fighter from scratch using domestic engines, says it is ready to do so again, though French public finances are strained.

At the air show, an Airbus-led alliance is set to make a lobbying push for German firms, though sources denied this marked the start of a new project.

Schoellhorn played down the prospect of going solo. "Germany has been clear on numerous occasions, also on the political side, that we continue to think European," he said.

With limited domestic demand to keep costs down and fiscal pressures across the continent, analysts say European fighter-producing nations other than France will keep pursuing alliances, potentially extending to the Middle East.

"It doesn't make the product cheap but it makes it affordable. Some of this stuff is really difficult to do on your own, except for the Americans or Chinese," Barrie said.

(Additional reporting by Johan Ahlander, Ludwig Burger, Angelo Amante, Sarah Young, Joanna Plucinska, Michel Rose. Editing by Mark Potter)