Analysis-Global oil inventories depleted, next price spike could roil economies, markets

By Georgina McCartney and Laura Matthews

HOUSTON/NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - Global oil inventories are running dangerously low as a deal to re-open tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has proven elusive, and industry executives and analysts warn there could be another oil price shock in the coming weeks, severe enough to upset broader financial markets.

Some fear the next move higher for oil prices would pose a risk to economic growth, bond yields and the bull market for stocks. 

"We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. But once you get to that point, you'll see prices shoot up," Neil Chapman, Exxon Mobil senior vice president, said at the Bernstein conference in New York on May 28.

Chapman said that if inventory levels get much lower, dated Brent, which is used to price more than 60% of globally traded crude, could rise to $150 or $160 a barrel.

Crude inventories and strategic reserve releases have kept oil prices somewhat under control in the four months that the war with Iran has kept supplies from reaching much of the world. Crude futures have been trading below $100 a barrel despite the strait remaining effectively closed.

For days, U.S. President Donald Trump has said a deal to reopen the strait is imminent. But so far it has been elusive, and warnings from the oil industry have gotten sharper. 

If stock draws continue at their current pace, sinking global oil inventories could hit critically low levels just as summer fuel demand hits its peak, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil industry and markets division, Toril Bosoni, said on Tuesday.

"Once they (cushions) thin out, prices have to do more of the adjustment work. That means either consumers pay more or demand gets destroyed," said Mehmet Beceren, vice president and senior market strategist at Rosenberg Research, who said a tipping point could be reached by the end of June.

"Once we move into the back half of June it is likely that we see oil prices rapidly appreciate" unless the Strait of Hormuz throughput normalizes to pre-conflict levels, JPMorgan's Data Assets and Alpha group predicted, citing the bank’s research.

In the U.S., the world's largest crude producer, crude inventories including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 791 million barrels in the week to May 29, their lowest since February 2024, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. 

U.S. crude stocks are down almost 64 million barrels since the start of the war, and have fallen for eight straight weeks.  

The U.S. is in the process of releasing 172 million barrels from the SPR, part of a coordinated effort by the IEA to release a record 400 million barrels of oil to combat rising prices.

Those stock releases alongside a drop in Chinese seaborne crude imports, which in May hit the lowest level in nearly 10 years, have helped quell some of the supply shock.

"I think the risk of a second price shock is real, but the key point is that it may come from the exhaustion of buffers rather than from the initial Hormuz closure itself," Shohruh Zukhritdinov, a Dubai-based oil trader, said. 

Drawdowns in U.S. strategic petroleum reserves, fuel substitution and other factors that have limited the price spike may not be enough if the disruption drags on, analysts in JPMorgan's Data Assets and Alpha group said.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

KNOCK-ON EFFECTS 

Investors said that the conflict has embedded a lasting risk premium in crude, with knock-on effects for inflation, bond yields and consumer spending.

Recent events suggest a lasting structural change in energy markets, said Joseph Tanious, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust Asset Management. 

"The Strait of Hormuz is now firmly established as a persistent geopolitical chokepoint," Tanious said, adding that a return to pre-war oil prices below $70 looked unlikely even if tensions eased. 

As a result, he sees an uneven global impact, with Europe and Asia remaining more vulnerable to sustained energy inflation, while the U.S., a net exporter, is relatively better insulated.

Higher oil prices are "a modest headwind" for the U.S. economy, said Adam Schickling, senior economist at Vanguard, thanks to domestic oil production and strong investments in artificial intelligence which have offset pressure on consumers. 

Yet in a scenario where crude rises to around $120 per barrel and remains there for a year, U.S. economic growth could slow by about 0.4 percentage points, according to Vanguard's estimates.

For households, the impact depends less on the precise level of oil prices and more on how long they stay elevated. Consumers retain some buffer, with fuel costs accounting for a smaller share of income than in previous oil shocks. But that cushion diminishes over time.

If prices remained high through the next three months as the summer driving season begins, consumer spending could slow further, said Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic.  

"Consumer sentiment is already at all-time lows, but if oil prices stay here for another three months, or move meaningfully higher in the short-term, start to look for a real economic impact," Blancato said, urging portfolio diversification, including looking outside of equities.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston and Laura Matthews in New York, editing by Megan Davies; Nathan Crooks, Liz Hampton and David Gregorio)