Exclusive-AI backlash could threaten Anthropic IPO timing, potential investors say

By Echo Wang, Krystal Hu and Milana Vinn

NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Potential investors in Anthropic's highly anticipated IPO are raising doubts about whether the artificial intelligence startup can proceed with its planned roadshow next week in time for a November listing, four people familiar with investor discussions said.

Investors are pushing for a more attractive valuation to commit to the offering, with some viewing the recently discussed $1.5 trillion valuation as being at the high end of expectations, the people told Reuters.

The discussions reflect in part the impact of the sharpest technology stocks selloff in a year and geopolitical uncertainty clouding the outlook for new offerings.

Anthropic declined to comment on investor doubts.

The roadshow was initially expected to kick off the week of November 9, Reuters previously reported, with pricing expected the following week.

Anthropic may need to offer a bigger discount to secure investor commitments, particularly as investors recognize the company's need to raise capital given a record of quarterly losses and the large commitments it has made to partners in the AI buildout, the people said.

Investors are also eagerly awaiting Anthropic's October revenue figure, which the company left blank in its updated S-1 filing, to assess whether the AI lab has managed to boost growth after a slowdown in recent months, two of the people said. 

Wall Street and Silicon Valley were abuzz on Thursday with questions about whether the company would move forward, in the wake of the two-day AI market selloff following Tuesday’s US midterm elections.

A decision to delay the offering would likely fuel further concern over the health of the AI ecosystem at a time when the success of ballot efforts in many states limiting data center development has crystallized political opposition to data centers and other aspects of AI.

An Anthropic delay could also pose a threat to the broader stock market, which is heavily weighted toward large technology firms whose valuations would likely be squeezed by any sense that Anthropic, one of the highest-profile AI firms, is finding it difficult to raise funds.

At one point this year its IPO was expected by investors to take place in October and to seek a valuation as high as $2 trillion.

Many investors remain bullish on the AI buildout, though the selling in AI-related assets has dented sentiment over the past month. Some analysts say that Anthropic, like SpaceX before it, is likely to benefit from strong retail investor demand.

"It's not like these companies are not going to be a part of the future," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey. "They're going to become public. Investors are still going to have a lot of interest in them. Valuations have risen for a long time in the private market, and we'll probably see some pullback."

Even if Anthropic and its investors get together on a valuation, as Wall Street currently expects, other factors could determine whether the company chooses to move forward with the IPO by year-end.

If the market for AI-related assets remains under pressure, the company could decide to delay the offering until the market looks more resilient and likely to smoothly digest an offering that is expected by some to reach $100 billion, the people familiar with investor discussions said.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday evening that IPO investors are skeptical Anthropic can achieve $1.5 trillion in valuation in a public listing.

MARKET ROUT TESTS AI CONFIDENCE

Trading was anything but smooth on Thursday, fueled by the outcome this week at the polls but also by corporate developments and increasing market anxiety.

Microsoft tightened oversight of some data center projects from neocloud providers Nebius, IREN and Nscale, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Nebius, Iren and CoreWeave were among the biggest decliners on Thursday and each has lost half their market value over the past month.

Meanwhile investors fled from all AI-related assets, with the credit default swaps covering CoreWeave and SpaceX alike hitting records that imply an increasing expectation that they could default on their obligations in coming years.

More than 50 S&P 1500 technology stocks dropped by 10% or more, and Vanda Research said retail selling was the strongest it has been since the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We are now seeing something of a buyers' strike in tech," said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta. Tech has underperformed the S&P 500 by 10.7% over the past month, the most extreme one-month underperformance since May 2002, Lerner said.

He described the selling so far as uncomfortable but not abnormal, while adding, "the rubber band is getting stretched."

(Reporting by Echo Wang and Milana Vinn in New York, Krystal Hu in San Francisco; additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch and Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Colin Barr, Jonathan Spicer and Christopher Cushing)