Lilly beats estimates on resilient demand for injectable GLP-1 drugs, widens gap with Novo

By Mrinalika Roy and Mariam Sunny

Aug 5 (Reuters) - Sales of Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro injectable weight-loss and diabetes drugs soared during the second quarter, easily beating Wall Street estimates and widening the gap with Danish rival Novo Nordisk.

The trillion-dollar company also posted better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year revenue forecast, and its shares were up 3.6%.

The strong results are likely to reassure investors that demand for Lilly's GLP-1 treatments remains resilient despite pricing pressure and intensifying competition from Novo, which launched an oral version of its Wegovy weight-loss drug in the U.S. earlier this year.

Novo on Tuesday said sales of its Wegovy pill reached 3.22 billion Danish crowns ($497 million), up 42.6% from the previous quarter but slightly below analysts' expectations, tempering hopes the product would help the company regain ground in the obesity market.

"The general consensus in the community is that tirzepatide is the better product... efficacy is what's key" for consumers, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said, using the chemical name for both Zepbound and Mounjaro.

The view was echoed by some investors, who said oral Wegovy no longer enjoys the pricing advantage it had at launch since Lilly cut prices for its obesity treatments, and with a new Medicare bridge program launched last month offering all weight-loss drugs at the same $50 monthly co-pay.

Sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro rose 91% to $9.94 billion, beating analysts' estimates, while obesity drug Zepbound brought in $4.93 billion, compared with expectations of $4.73 billion. The two drugs accounted for 64.7% of Lilly's revenue in the quarter.

Strong demand lifted sales volumes across global markets, with Mounjaro driving growth outside the United States and both Mounjaro and Zepbound boosting U.S. sales, although lower realized prices partly offset those gains, Lilly said. Mounjaro is the brand name used for both weight loss and diabetes outside the U.S.

By comparison, Novo's diabetes and obesity portfolio generated nearly 59.3 billion Danish crowns ($9.16 billion) in quarterly sales, led by Ozempic and Wegovy injections.

Eli Lilly Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce said demand for injectable GLP-1 medicines remained strong, accounting for roughly three out of every four new patient starts, even as oral obesity pill options have come into the market.

The trend was also evident in the U.S. government's Medicare obesity drug pilot launched last month, where about 80% of patients chose to begin treatment with an injectable medicine, Lilly Executive Vice President Ilya Yuffa said.

Many pharmaceutical industry experts had expected patients to prefer pills over injections, for convenience.

Expanded Medicare access through the pilot should support U.S. growth, with about 60% to 70% of those in the program expected to be patients new to the drugs, said Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Lilly investor Bahl & Gaynor.

The market continues to underappreciate the strength of Mounjaro demand outside the U.S. and its longer-term international growth potential, he added.

Lilly and Novo dominate the lucrative obesity market. Lilly surpassed a $1 trillion valuation last year, while Novo's newly launched Wegovy pill is quickly gaining traction in its U.S. rollout.

The global market for obesity drugs reached $66 billion in 2025, according to data firm IQVIA. Analysts expect it to hit over $100 billion annually by 2030 in the U.S. alone.

Citi analysts said the outlook for the remainder of the year would depend on volume growth, driven by expanded Medicare access and sustained international demand for Mounjaro.

LILLY RAISES BAR AGAIN

Lilly now expects revenue of $85 billion to $87 billion for 2026, up from its previous forecast of $82 billion to $85 billion.

J.P.Morgan analysts wrote in a note that Lilly remained their top pick with further upside to Street numbers over the next several years.

The revised forecast comes a day after Novo also raised its full-year profit and sales forecasts, counting on oral Wegovy to help claw back lost ground from Lilly.

Sales of Foundayo, Lilly's newly launched once-daily obesity pill, came in at $98 million, falling short of analysts' average expectation of $105.6 million.

Foundayo's launch continued to gain momentum, with prescriptions in the last week of July about double those a month earlier, and nearly one in four patients starting on the pill, Yuffa added.

The company said Foundayo is now under regulatory review in more than 40 markets and expects a rollout across all major markets in 2027.

Lilly trimmed the top end of its full-year profit forecast by 50 cents, citing charges related to business activity in the quarter, and now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $35.50 to $36.50. Analysts are estimating a profit of $34.20 per share.

Adjusted earnings came in at $8.38 per share for the second quarter, sailing past analysts' average estimate of $6.01, according to data compiled by LSEG.

($1 = 6.4705 Danish crowns)

(Reporting by Mariam Sunny, Mrinalika Roy, and Michael Ermnan; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Bill Berkrot)