Airbus trims jet industry demand forecast after Iran war, tariffs

By Joanna Plucinska and Tim Hepher

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - Airbus on Wednesday revised down its 20-year industry-wide forecast for passenger aircraft demand by 1% after the Iran war and trade tensions slammed the brakes on what had been a sharp rebound in airline activity since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The world's largest planemaker said it still expected robust jet demand led by Asia, which is expected to account for about half of all deliveries, but that back-to-back tariff and Gulf crises had taken the wind out of earlier growth projections.

"That post-COVID recovery has effectively flattened," Antonio Da Costa, head of market analysis, told reporters.

The lowered long-term growth outlook points to a somewhat less buoyant aviation market ahead, as airlines trim their capacity growth plans in the wake of higher oil prices stemming from the Iran war.

AIRCRAFT SHORTAGES MAY EASE

Reviewing demand across the industry, which includes planes sold by rival Boeing as well as newcomer China, Airbus said it expected 42,060 total passenger jet deliveries between 2026 and 2045, down 1% from its previous rolling 20-year forecast.

This includes 33,920 single-aisle jets in the busiest segment of the industry, which includes the Airbus A320neo family and Boeing's 737 MAX, and 8,140 wide-body or long-haul jets, both down 1% from the previous 20-year forecast.

That is barely enough to accommodate announced production plans of Airbus and Boeing while leaving room for China's competing C919 in coming years, suggesting recent widespread shortages of aircraft may eventually ease.

Airbus said it expected a higher proportion of total passenger jet deliveries - 47% compared with the previous 45% - to replace older jets rather than increase the size of fleets.  

The European company also revised its headline figure for passenger traffic growth upwards to 3.9% a year from 3.6%, but executives said this marks a downgrade from 4.1% on a like-for-like basis.

Airbus did not provide data on freighter demand.

MIDDLE EAST HUBS RETURNING TO NORMAL

One area continuing to come back strongly during a fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict is the Middle East, whose Gulf hubs have returned towards normal traffic volumes, Airbus said.

The world's fastest-growing air travel market remains India, where Airbus revised up its forecast for annual domestic traffic growth to 9.1% from 8.9%. It lowered its growth forecast for China's huge domestic market to 4.7% from 5.4%.

Airbus and Boeing say aviation has shown an ability to absorb shocks, from 9/11 to the financial crisis or COVID-19.

But as air travel expands the industry is maturing, meaning some long-term growth rates are starting to taper off. Airlines are also flying jets longer or squeezing in more people, while AI could further boost efficiency, Da Costa said.

Analysts say forecasts from Airbus and Boeing underpin wider investment in aviation. But while they have proven broadly accurate, their composition illustrates how bets have evolved.

In its latest edition, Airbus highlighted the importance of secondary cities as it promotes small planes like the A220 and the narrow-body A321XLR, which can "bypass megahubs". 

A decade ago, Airbus was touting the critical importance of "megacities" served by its A380 superjumbo, the world's largest airliner, which has since halted production due to weak demand.

(Reporting by Joanna Plucinska and Tim Hepher; Editing by Jan Harvey)