Italy PM Meloni hails industrial output rise, analysts remain cautious

By Antonella Cinelli

ROME, June 10 (Reuters) - Italian industrial output unexpectedly rose in April from the previous month, data showed on Wednesday, posting a 0.5% increase that marked the third gain in a row for a manufacturing sector showing signs of emerging from a long-runnng slump.

Industrial output rose 0.6% rise in March, amid surging energy costs following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that began at the end of February.

A Reuters survey of 15 analysts had pointed to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in April.

In the February-to-April period, output in the euro zone's third-largest economy was up 0.2% compared to the previous three months, national statistics agency ISTAT said, holding up better than expected during the Middle East conflict.

"Industrial output is beginning to show signs of recovery," Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in a speech to retailers' association Confcommercio following the data release.

Analysts remain cautious.

Italian economic think-tank Prometeia said the recent gains could be due to a front-loading effect, with firms stepping up production and procurement in order to guard against the risks arising from potential disruptions to supply chains.

Paolo Pizzoli, senior economist at ING, said April's output growth was a sign of "resilience within the framework of a very tentative turnaround: nothing more, for the time being."

On a work day-adjusted year-on-year basis, industrial output rose 1.3% in April, after a 1.4% increase in March, ISTAT said.

The government in April cut its economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year and next, reflecting the increase in energy costs and geopolitical tensions, from previous targets of 0.7% and 0.8% respectively.

In 2025 Italy grew by 0.5%, a third straight year of sub-1% growth.

In the first quarter of 2026 Italian gross domestic product increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the same growth rate as in the fourth quarter of last year.

(Reporting by Antonella Cinelli, additional reporting by Angelo Amante, graphic by Stefano Bernabei, editing by Giulia Segreti and Gavin Jones)