ASML may account for up to 1.6% of Dutch economy in 2026, ING says 

AMSTERDAM, Oct 26 (Reuters) - ASML may account directly for up to 1.6% of the Dutch economy this year, up from 1.3% in 2025, economists at ING wrote in a note published on Monday, highlighting the Netherlands' growing reliance on the chip equipment maker.

ASML's tools are needed to make cutting-edge computer chips, and booming AI demand has made it Europe's most valuable firm by market capitalization, at €547 billion ($613 billion).

Europe has lagged the US and Asia in the global tech boom, and former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi has warned the continent's position in growth technologies is worsening. The Netherlands, the report said, is an exception.

"Thanks to ASML and the ecosystem around it, the Netherlands occupies a pivotal position in the AI-driven technology boom and is reaping substantial economic benefits from it," the authors wrote.

The company's R&D and production are both in the Netherlands, with additional indirect benefits coming from its supplier ecosystem, ING said. ASML last month said it expects to expand production capacity by 30% in 2027 and by another 30% in 2028.

BEWARE THE NOKIA EFFECT

Despite benefits to the Dutch economy, the researchers warned of increasing reliance on a single company, citing the example of Nokia in Finland.

At its peak in around 2000, Nokia accounted for 3.8% of the Finnish economy, but it fell to 0.5% a decade later as it missed out on the smartphone revolution, the authors wrote. A 2023 OECD study linked the firm's decline to slower productivity growth throughout the economy.

The example shows "how disruptive a shock to a dominant firm can be, even within a highly developed technology ecosystem," the authors wrote.

Geopolitics are another concern, especially the US-China tech rivalry. US-led restrictions already bar sales of ASML's most advanced tools to China, with more under consideration. ASML is also vulnerable to disruption of supplies of critical foreign components, ING said.

At home, shortages of skilled workers could constrain growth. ASML last month broke ground on a major expansion in the Dutch city of Eindhoven that is expected to eventually have space to house up to 20,000 workers.

($1 = 0.8925 euros)

(Reporting by Toby Sterling; Editing by Xevi Fontdegloria)