British home price increases to lag inflation this year and next: Reuters poll

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - British home prices will rise less than previously expected, achieving just 1.3% gains this year as a challenging economic environment stops people from moving while those renting properties will face steeper increases, a Reuters poll found.

Next year the average cost of buying a home will increase 2.0% while in 2028 it will rise 3.3%, according to median forecasts in the September 7 to 18 poll of 16 property market experts. Forecasts for 2027 ranged from no change to a 3.5% rise.

A June survey had predicted a 1.8% rise this year and 3.0% in both next year and 2028.

"Elevated mortgage rates and a lack of stimulus mean we expect prices will remain broadly flat. We could see some modest increases in prices start to appear in 2027," Marcus Dixon at JLL said.

The Bank of England left borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday but Governor Andrew Bailey explicitly warned that prolonged conflict in the Middle East may require tighter policy. 

On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve lifted its key interest rate and flagged more hikes were to come as did the European Central Bank last week.

Britain's overall inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1% in August, official figures showed on Wednesday. It was expected to average 3.1% this year before dropping to 2.5% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028, a separate Reuters poll showed.

Signalling a lack of desire to move, lenders approved the fewest mortgages for house purchase since January 2024 in July, according to BoE data at the start of this month.

A slowdown in the housing market appears to be levelling off as measures of buyer demand and agreed sales moved away from recent lows, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said earlier this month.

But Barratt Redrow — the country's biggest homebuilder — lowered its home completions target on Wednesday, echoing wider strains as planning bottlenecks and cautious buyers weigh on the sector.

In London, prices will fall 1.4% this year before recouping some of those losses and rising 0.9% in 2027, the poll found. Those forecasts were also weaker than June's survey.

The average price of a home in London was £646,451 ($864,176) in August, according to the latest house price index published by Rightmove, making buying a property out of reach for many — especially first-time buyers. 

RENTERS

Nationwide rental prices will rise 3.0% this year and next. They will increase 2.8% in 2028, the poll said.

"Fewer landlords are letting out property, shrinking rental supply. At the same time, high borrowing costs are pricing many would-be buyers out of the market, pushing them into renting instead," Liam Daly at CEBR said.

"Together, these trends point to strong rental price growth ahead."  

Average private rent prices rose last month at the fastest rate this year, according to official data on Wednesday which also showed a cooling in house price inflation.

(Other stories from the Q3 Reuters housing market polls)

($1 = £0.7481)

(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Editing by Andrew Heavens)