Maersk raises outlook again as AI buildout, port congestion keep freight rates high

By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Stine Jacobsen

COPENHAGEN, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Danish shipping group Maersk raised its 2026 profit guidance for a third time on Thursday, as port congestion and AI-driven demand kept container freight rates high, but shares fell 11% as analysts said the upgrade was expected and third-quarter profit disappointed.  

The jump in profit guidance came from higher prices rather than more cargo, leaving Maersk’s earnings tied to congestion and disruption that some analysts expect to fade as ships return to the Suez Canal and new vessels arrive. 

The world’s second-largest container line, often viewed as a bellwether for global trade, now expects underlying profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of between $14 billion and $14.5 billion this year, up from a previous range of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion.

Underlying operating profit (EBIT) is expected to be between $8 billion and $8.5 billion, up from a previous range of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion, it said.

The new EBITDA guidance was broadly in line with analyst expectations of $14.02 billion for the full year, according to an LSEG poll.

Maersk posted third-quarter profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of $4.7 billion, up 75%, but below a mean forecast of $5.04 billion in an LSEG poll.

Analysts said the operating profit miss was driven by weaker-than-expected volumes and higher costs in the Ocean division.

RESILIENT TRADE

"Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions, global trade has remained remarkably resilient," CEO Vincent Clerc said in a statement.

"Demand is being driven not only by consumer spending, but increasingly by major investments in electrification, energy and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, generating significant flows of industrial cargo around the world," he said. 

A surge in spending on semiconductors and AI data centres has boosted global trade and helped offset disruption from the US-Israeli war with Iran, the World Trade Organization said last month.

In the United States, Maersk said economic activity held strong, supported by consumer spending and business investment tied to the AI buildout.

Ocean volumes were largely flat from a year earlier. Freight rates rose by 46% from the previous quarter and more than doubled from a year earlier, as port congestion persisted and Maersk continued its gradual return to the Suez Canal, which most shippers abandoned in late 2023 following Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. 

Maersk said this week that its ME1 service linking India and Europe would resume sailing through the canal.

Growth in China was constrained by sluggish domestic demand, with recent fiscal measures providing only a modest boost, Maersk said. Asian exports slowed in July and August amid weather-related disruption. 

Maersk has sharply increased its profit outlook since the start of the year, when it warned that new ships and a return to the Suez Canal would push down rates.

Maersk still expects global container volumes to grow around 4% this year.

(Reporting by Stine Jacobsen and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)