Maersk raises outlook again as strong demand, freight rates lift profit

By Stine Jacobsen

COPENHAGEN, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Danish shipping group Maersk on Thursday raised its full-year earnings guidance for a second time this year and smashed profit forecasts as global container demand proved resilient in the face of the Middle East conflict.

Surging freight rates, fuelled by gridlocked ports and strong Chinese export growth, delivered a windfall that dwarfed the additional costs caused by Middle East disruption, defying fears that the conflict would tip the global economy into recession and dent container demand.

Shares in the company were up 5.8% at 1028 GMT.

Maersk's second-quarter profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation stood at $3.0 billion, well above a median forecast of $2.12 billion in a company-provided poll and up from $2.30 billion a year ago.

Waiting times to berth have reached 12 days at the port of Shanghai, CEO Vincent Clerc said, as surging demand overwhelmed chronically underinvested landside infrastructure across Northern Europe, South America, West Africa and China.

Clerc said the resulting bottlenecks, not Middle East conflict, were driving freight rates higher.

Shipping companies are once again benefiting from higher freight rates driven by severe port congestion, network bottlenecks and strong demand, a dynamic reminiscent of the pandemic period, when supply-chain disruption tightened capacity and boosted industry profits.

MAERSK LIFTS 2026 OUTLOOK AGAIN

The company now expects underlying EBITDA of between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion this year, up from a previous $8 billion to $10 billion, and underlying operating profit between $4.5 billion and $6.5 billion, up from a previous $2 billion to $4 billion.

Global container trade demand exceeded expectations in the second quarter as growth elsewhere more than offset a 40% contraction in Middle East imports, with Chinese exports the main engine.

"This strength may extend into the third quarter of 2026, as exports from China show no signs of abating. However, the unresolved conflict in the Middle East continues to warrant caution," Maersk said.

German rival Hapag-Lloyd also recently raised its outlook despite flagging a $600 million hit from the Middle East crisis.

COSTS AND DISRUPTION

Middle East disruption pushed Maersk's Ocean division operating costs up 19%, with the average bunker price rising 44% year-on-year, though the company said it offset the impact through optimised fuel consumption and commercial measures.

The Asia-Europe trade corridor through the Suez Canal was abandoned by most shippers after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, though Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have in recent months announced a gradual return.

Clerc said Maersk was currently routing around a third of its normal traffic through the canal or Red Sea, covering four of 13 services. He said conditions for a full return to Suez in 2026 were in place, but that Maersk was moving gradually to avoid chaos at already-congested terminals.

(Reporting by Stine Jacobsen; Editing by Terje Solsvik, Jan Harvey and Matt Scuffham)