Analysis-AI race redraws Asian air cargo, replacing e-commerce as growth engine

By Julie Zhu and Lisa Baertlein

HONG KONG/LOS ANGELES, July 29 (Reuters) - The global race to build artificial intelligence is redrawing Asia's air cargo map, prompting airlines to redesign networks around growing semiconductor manufacturing hubs as cross-border e-commerce loses momentum.

Unlike the post-pandemic parcel boom, demand tied to AI infrastructure is underpinned by multi-year orders for advanced memory chips and processors and hundreds of billions of dollars of planned investment in data centres, airlines and logistics companies say.

At the same time, tighter low-value import rules in the U.S. and Europe are dampening the cross-border e-commerce trade that has driven much of the industry's recent growth.

"E-commerce was air freight's single biggest growth pillar, but that is no longer the case," Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said when the freight analytics firm issued its mid-year outlook this month.

Korean Air Lines offers one of the clearest examples of the transition.

Cargo revenue surged 46% in the second quarter to 1.54 trillion won ($1.07 billion), driven by AI chips, server racks and data centre infrastructure that the airline said had replaced e-commerce shipments from China as its primary growth engine.

Advanced high-tech cargo "has rapidly expanded as a core growth driver," said Jaedong Eum, executive vice president and head of Korean Air's cargo business.

Demand is unusually visible, he said, with orders for advanced high-bandwidth memory chips and processors already stretching two to three years into the future even as demand continues to exceed supply.

Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year-on-year in April, the strongest growth since records began in 1986, according to Xeneta. By contrast, China's low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% in May, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline.

The U.S. ended duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value imports from China last year, while the European Union this month abolished its own duty-free threshold.

Fast-fashion retailer Shein said on Sunday those changes had hurt its U.S. business and were expected to create further headwinds in Europe. Japan's ANA Holdings said in a statement that the EU move was a downside risk for the broader cargo market even as semiconductor-related shipments remained strong.

REDRAWING TRADE ROUTES

The changing cargo mix is also redrawing trade routes across Asia. Japan exports semiconductor manufacturing equipment, South Korea produces advanced memory chips and Taiwan is the centre of leading-edge chip production.

Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore are emerging as increasingly important manufacturing and assembly hubs for AI servers destined for North America and Europe.

Freight throughput at Singapore's Changi Airport grew 8.7% year-on-year in the first half driven by strong global semiconductor demand, said Lim Ching Kiat, the airport group's executive vice president for air hub and cargo development.

Airlines are reorganising around those flows.

Japan Airlines said technology products accounted for about 80% of the increase in air exports from Asia excluding China over the past year, underscoring how semiconductor and AI-related hardware is reshaping regional cargo flows. It has expanded freighter services linking semiconductor hubs such as Taipei, Bangkok and Hanoi with Tokyo's Narita airport.

ANA said it was integrating Nippon Cargo Airlines to shift more large freighters onto trans-Pacific and European routes while using its Asian network to funnel semiconductor cargo from manufacturing hubs across the region.

In Taiwan, China Airlines has added Southeast Asia freighter flights as manufacturers diversify production and said AI-related demand helped lift cargo volumes 8.1% in the first half of the year. EVA Airways said AI-related shipments now account for up to half of its cargo revenue.

Airlines say AI hardware requires different handling from traditional air freight because shipments often include delicate, high-value semiconductor manufacturing equipment, graphics processors and complete server racks.

Airline group IATA estimates AI-related goods accounted for 53.5% of the value of goods carried by air in 2025 while making up just 7% of cargo volume. Unlike much e-commerce cargo, AI hardware is compact, extremely valuable and often time-critical to keep data centre projects on schedule, making air transport worth the premium.

To adapt to the changing market, Cathay Pacific Airways said it had introduced software that automatically determines how sensitive semiconductor equipment and AI hardware should be loaded and secured inside aircraft.

The surge is also stretching cargo infrastructure. Dimerco Express Group said AI and semiconductor shipments had filled Taiwan's Taipei air cargo hub to capacity in July, keeping freight space tight on routes to the U.S. and within Asia.

"As major tech companies introduce next-generation AI processors and continue their long-term infrastructure commitments, we anticipate strong cargo demand to persist through the second half of 2026," Korean Air's Eum said.

($1 = 1,443.1000 won)

(Reporting by Julie Zhu in Hong Kong and Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Jamie Freed)